I realized,about the time Tashel Ban pressed the key and
started the program, that there’s more than one kind of silence. There’s ordinary silence, and there’s deep
silence, and then there’s the sort of silence that you get when everything
seems to stop, just like that, and hang there in the stillness until the
silence breaks. That last kind is how
silent it was there in Star’s Reach as we stood around the computer and watched
the screen go black. After a while, some
words appeared in the middle of the screen:
please wait
So that’s what we did. Lights down on the body of the
computer flashed and flickered as though they were frantic about
something. Around the time I was
wondering if the thing was calling home to somewhere off past Tau Ceti II and
waiting for the answer, a red point appeared at the center of the screen, and
then grew into a ball that turned slowly. More words appeared:
Is something visible on the screen? y/n
Tashel Ban tapped the Y key.
I swear the sound echoed off the walls of the room.
Is it a sphere? y/n
He tapped it again.
Is it red? y/n
Another tap. A moment
later, a sound like a flute playing one note came out of the computer.
Can you hear the sound? y/n
Tashel Ban tapped the same key.
“Can you hear this voice?” It was the computer, no question,
talking out of the little holes on both sides of the screen, but it sounded
like a woman’s voice, cool and calm and not quite saying the words the way
they’re supposed to be said.
“Yes,” said Tashel Ban.
“Is it speaking the English language?”
“Yes.”
“Is it clear and understandable to you?”
“Close enough.”
“I don’t know what that means.”
I think we all looked at each other just then. “Yes,” Tashel
Ban said after a moment.
“Thank you,” said the voice. The red ball vanished, and the
screen stayed black for another longish time while the little lights on the
computer body went frantic again. Then
stars appeared, coming out slowly the way they do after sunset, and in the
middle of them something that nobody in Meriga has ever seen and everybody in
Meriga knows: what Mam Gaia looks like
from space.
“This is your world,” said the voice. All at once, Mam Gaia
shot away into distance, as though the screen had turned into a window on a
spaceship like the ones in all those stories I read. After a bit you could see the sun and the
other planets scattered around it, and then everything else fell into the sun
and the sun turned into a little white star out there among all the other stars,
and then you could hardly see the sun at all.
The spaceship, if that’s what it was, slowed down; another sun came past
on one side, and then another world came
into view, big and pale green and covered with swirls and stripes.
“This is ours,” the voice said. “You would call it the
fourth planet of the star Delta Pavonis.”
The screen turned and plunged down toward the planet. Green swirls filled it, and then all at once
we were in among the swirls, in a place where the sky was pale green and big white
clumps of something else that might have been clouds drifted past, and there
was no ground at all, just sky above and below and as far as you could see in
every direction. Something drifted into
sight, something that looked a little like a clump of soap bubbles with a lot
of thin feathers dangling down from it, but the feathers were moving and the
soap bubbles got bigger and smaller as it drifted on by.
“That’s one of them,” Eleen said in a whisper.
She was right, too.
Two others came into the screen, and the voice said, “You cannot visit
our world and meet us, but if you could, this is what you would see.”
The image drew back, so we could see hundreds of the
bubbles-and-feathers things, drifting around in the green sky. “More than four million of your years ago,”
the voice said, “our species reached the stage of complex technology.”
Something like a vast heap of soap bubbles and spiderwebs came into sight,
glowing with points of light; I guessed it was a city, or something like one. “We made the usual mistakes, and suffered
the usual consequences.” The image
changed; the sky turned brown and murky, and another of the city-things came
into sight, torn, lightless, empty. “Our recovery was long and difficult. Afterwards, we began reaching out, as you
have, to try to contact other species on other worlds.
“We succeeded.” Another of the city-things appeared, tiny
compared to the first, but with something I guessed was an antenna spread out
over what must have been a huge piece of green sky. “Other worlds had already contacted one
another by radio, beginning almost twenty-two million of your years ago. There
are thirty-eight species currently in contact with one another. If you and the species you call Cetans both
choose to open radio contact with us, you will be the thirty-ninth and
fortieth. Our world is closer to your
world and the Cetans’ world than any of the others, and we have been listening
to your radio communications for many of your years now, so it is our place to
invite you both to enter into communication with us. Here are the other species
who are waiting for your answer.”
One at a time, as the voice went on, pictures appeared on
the screen. Every one of them had
something toward the middle that must have been an alien, and something behind
it that must have been an alien world, but that’s about all that I can say
about most of them. As I write this, I’m
remembering one of them, a little like an upside-down flower with seven long
fleshy petals, or maybe they were feet.
The petal-feet were orange and so was the body of the flower, where the
petal-feet came together in a spray of long thin drooping spines. Around the top of the body, where the stem
would be, were a couple of dozen stalks with bright blue cones on the end of
them; I guessed they were eyes. The
alien stood on what looked like yellow sand, or maybe it was snow, and
something like yellow fog swirled around it.
The reason I remember that alien is that it looked more like a human
being than any of the others did.
“Your messages to the Cetans, and theirs to you, have taught
us much about how you communicate and how you understand the universe,” said
the voice, as the aliens appeared and disappeared. “The message you received from us was
designed to launch a set of self-replicating patterns that can adapt themselves
to any information technology. Those
patterns analyzed your technology and your means of communication so that this
message could be given to you in a form you can understand. If you choose to
accept our invitation, the analysis will be sent to us by radio, and we will be
better able to understand what you say to us thereafter. If you accept our
invitation, we know that you will have many questions. We can anticipate certain of these and will
answer them now.
“Most species, when first contacted by one of the worlds
already conversing with one another, want to know if we can travel to their
world, or bring them to one of ours. We
cannot. Most of the technological
species we have contacted have attempted space travel, and made, as you did,
short trips to nearby moons and worlds.
That much can be done, at a great cost in energy and resources. To
travel from star to star, however, involves a cost in energy and resources that
no species known to us has ever been able to meet, and technological challenges
that no species known to us has ever succeeded in overcoming. You are free to make the attempt, and other
species will gladly teach you what they have learned from their failures, but
we cannot offer you any hope of success.
“Most species want to know if we can help them repair the
damage to their world that they did when they first reached the stage of
complex technology. We cannot. We can share our own experiences with you,
and other species can do the same, but each world that supports life has its
own unique patterns and problems, and the experiences of other species on other
worlds may be of little help to you. At best, principles learned from those
experiences may be of use to you, if it happens that you have not yet learned
them yourselves.
“Most species want to know if we can teach them sciences and
technologies they have not already learned for themselves. We can try, but this is less easy than you
may yet realize. You will already have
learned from your communications with the Cetans that different species
understand the universe in very different ways, that many of the things you
think are true about the universe are actually reflections of the deep
structures of your own organisms, and that many more depend on conditions on
your world that are not found elsewhere.
We encourage you to tell us about your technology and the ways in which
you understand the universe, and we will gladly try to share our knowledge with
you. We will marvel at what we learn
from you, but much of what you share with us, we will never fully understand;
and you will find the same experience waiting for you.”
The parade of aliens finished, and then the screen showed
the green sky of Delta Pavonis IV and the bubble-and-feather things floating in
it.
“When our species first reached out to find other beings on
other worlds, we expected to find beings much like us, living on worlds that
were much like ours. We found ourselves instead communicating with beings we
can scarcely imagine, living on worlds we will never fully comprehend. You will
find the same thing.
“Thus we cannot solve your problems; we cannot come to you
or take you to some other world; we cannot teach you anything you are not ready
to learn. All we can offer is the chance to communicate with other intelligent
beings, to try to grasp something of the way we and other species experience
our worlds, to share your own experiences with others who are eager to learn
about them, and to know that you are not alone in the universe. If that is
enough, we welcome you to the conversation between worlds.
“Please communicate this message to the appropriate members
of your species and make the decision according to your ways. We await your
reply.”
The screen went black again, and words appeared a moment
later:
You may repeat the message at any time. After each
repetition, this device will ask if a decision has been made, and if the
decision is favorable, you will receive instructions on how to proceed.
I have no idea how long it was after the words appeared that
anyone talked or moved. I know that I
spent a good long time staring at the screen, thinking about the green skies
and bubble-and-feather creatures of Delta Pavonis IV and the other aliens,
scattered across who knows how much of space, talking to each other since long
before our first ancestors followed whatever hint Mam Gaia gave them and
climbed down out of the trees in Affiga, if the priestesses are right and
that’s where it happened. I thought of
the blobby yellow Cetans, who practically seem like friends and neighbors to
me, and wondered what they thought when they got the same message, the same
offer to sit down around a table made of stars and talk, knowing that whole
lives would pass by between asking a question and getting an answer.
“The usual mistakes,” said Thu. It was a moment before I realized he was
quoting the voice. “And the usual
consequences.”
“I was thinking about that, too,” Tashel Ban replied. “Also
about what it means that they can send a program to a computer they know
nothing about, and still get results like the ones we’ve seen. That shouldn’t be possible.”
“With four million years of practice?” Eleen pointed out.
“Twenty-two million years,” said Thu, “if they learned the
trick from others.”
That brought another long silence. I don’t know for sure
that everyone else was thinking about what that much time means, but I
certainly was.
“There was a debate,” Eleen said then, “back in the old
world, about technology. Almost everyone then thought that technology could
just keep on progressing forever, becoming more and more powerful, until it
could do anything. There were a few scholars who pointed out that everything
else follows what’s called the law of diminishing returns. Trey, if you’re
digging for metal in a ruin, the longer you keep digging, the harder it gets to
find metal; am I right?”
“True enough,” I said.
“What these scholars were saying is that knowledge works the
same way, and technology works the same way.
So the kind of thing that Anna—”
Her voice trailed off.
After a moment I realized why.
Anna was nowhere in the room, and from the blank looks on everyone’s
faces, nobody had seen her go. A cold
thought stirred, and I thought I knew where she would be; I turned away from
the computer and headed at a run to the room where the old alien-books were.
I was wrong, but as I got there I heard something hit the
floor in the kitchen. I turned and sprinted that way, and there she was, lying
in a puddle of blood with her hands on a knife and the knife in her chest. Her eyes were already staring up at nothing
as the last color drained out of her.
46 comments:
I've had this episode written in draft for months, and decided to be merciful and post it early. ;-) The next episode, which explains a good deal more, is in process and will be going up just after the beginning of April. Enjoy!
Thank you! I have been checking from time to time just in case. Ah, poor Anna . . .
You just cranked the volume up to 11, John! I won't sleep until the next installment ;)
Well, that was a leap! One wonders if any of the other thirty-eight worlds also faced wide-spread suicides upon learning there were other intelligent worlds out there.
Thanks for spinning such a good tale JMG.
I for one, did not see that one coming.
One of the things that constantly intrigues me is the way that many choose to meet radical changes.
I think sometimes Anna;s choice is just an extreme in a spectrum that people use to cope with the idea that they are not the center of the universe.
Drugs, religious fervor, hyper-rationalism are all arrows in that quiver.
I think that the some of the troubles in our country today are birthed from the same deep well of perceived inadequacy.
The human structures that has been created for us presuppose a great deal of "special" being applied to humans in particular and in general. Rejecting this can lead one to be a social pariah. Proof of the "non-special" status would probably lead to a great deal of anguish.
Again, thanks for the last forty-eight gifts.
John
Okay, so unless I'm mistaken, Tashel Ban and Thu now have nothing to fight about, right?
Help me out with the timetable a little bit. When relative to the Old World's fall did Star's Reach "begin", when and how much later did the small group retreat to the hidden room, when and how much later did Ana and her parents leave, when and how much later did everyone poison themselves, and finally, when and how much later did Trey and his friends end up there?
As far as I'm concerned, Berry's my presden. The decision's all his. Who agrees?
Thank you, all! Puzzler, good question -- suicide as a response to bad news may be a purely human reaction, for all we know.
Wildwood, in this story's future, Star's Reach gets built in the next couple of decades, remains part of the crumbling US government for about a hundred and fifty years, and then becomes an isolated community of its own thereafter, not so much in a single act as by gradually cutting ties with the outside world asd things got more dangerous. The population there gradually declined over time -- the fifty or so people who killed themselves were the last descendants of what had once been a community of five or six thousand. Trey's group got there about sixty years after it was abandoned.
I'm working on the next installment right now, so should have something to post in the first week of April. Stay tuned!
I was going to post something like this :-)
Disappointment that the box, once opened, was so empty of salvation, lead to suicide.
Other than *ALL* alien species being so utterly alien#, this is the logical conclusion.
# Out of 39 evolutionary choices, not one close ? Octopus eyes are much like ours.
There are a number pf viable solutions - of which we are one. Out of 39, IMVHO, at least a dozen should be recognizable (intelligent horses perhaps - porpoises with hands, etc.)
Which group will decide whether to agree to contact (or not) ?
Meriga government ? The Priestesses ?
Or other governments - the base is in no man's land - and this is a global decision !
And how long can contact be maintained ? Does the crew now there even know how to send ?
It sounds as if computers will be required for contact - more than simple radio and large antennas.
I would be tempted to make the decision now - and explain that civilization is now in decline on Earth, so contact may be interrupted.
And in keeping with JMG's chronology of Star's Reach (based on what he has told us), clearly as the group dwindled and became more and more isolated they evolved into deep believers searching for salvation from the heavens. Instead they received what (to them) was condemnation to an eternity stuck on this rock, a curse they could not accept. So in despair they took the other route to escape their earthly confines.
Not quite the plot twist I was thinking of; though there is still a whole lot of room left in the remaining threads. Sometime, JMG, I may tell you what I imagined for the big reveal, although alternative plot lines are usually only interesting to the person proposing them, not the author or the other readers who already have made their investment in the chosen plot... we'll see how the rest of the story goes.
(Deborah Bender)
Intrigued and puzzled.
So far, nothing that explains the mass suicide at Star's Reach.
Absolute confirmation that intelligent species exist in other star systems, that some of them are civilized, that they pose no danger to humans, and that they are able and willing to communicate with us, seems to me to be four great gifts.
We value reading the books and looking at the art created in long-gone civilizations, even though the creators are dead and can't help us directly, and even though the advice they left might not be applicable to our circumstances.
Simply being exposed to different points of view helps us to think more deeply about our own situation. Scientists and scholars value knowledge that has no immediate practical application, and learning that some limit exists on what one can know is valuable information.
Why would this invitation cause scientists to despair? Even if they lacked the ability to send out a return signal, they might have hope that a future generation could rebuild that technology. What's a few centuries delay in joining a conversation that's been going on for tens of millions of years?
Something else must have happened.
Wow! Give me a few minutes to pick my jaw up from off the floor here.
OK, I'm back. Now that's what they call "hard" sci-fi (that is, realistic according to the laws of physics as we know them). I've never seen any other fiction make the case that realistic "hard" sci-fi, set within the universe as we know it to exist, could actually be so interesting and compelling.
What sublime irony that, here and now, in the "Age of Profligate Waste", we are all so preoccupied by aliens (as a means of avoiding thinking about our own domestic-planet problems) that I seriously don't think any significant number of people on the whole Earth would be more than trivially disturbed by contact with far advanced alien civilizations. (Maybe a few of the most Fundamentalist Christians might take it badly, but such a tiny number.) Here and now in 2013, I suspect the worldwide response to such a message would be "what took you so long".
By contrast, after 400 years of focusing on the uniqueness and special qualities of the Earth, worshipping Gaia as unto a god, there could well be a large portion of the populace who take the mere existence of more advanced alien civilizations as an existentially intolerable proposition. Wow. Ya can't win for losing in this millieu.
And I am also thrilled with the insight, summed up in a sentence here but implied heavily in a lot of JMG's other written work, that "many of the things you think are true about the universe are actually reflections of the deep structures of your own organisms".
And then I think about how different individual humans are from _one another_, metabolically, psychologically, and I realize that we have this same problem within our own species and not just between species. Things that I think are so very deep and important, turn out to be trivial (and vice versa) when I'm talking with my friends who are, say, sports fans, or partisan political afficionados -- simply because of the way they were raised, or the rewards they have learned to get from such-and-such behavior, that sometimes I can't even seem to communicate with members of my own species and vice versa. Really a fascinating insight, pithily summed-up here.
Alan, octopi share our basic biology and live on the same planet we do. One of the points I want to make here is that aliens are far more likely to be *alien*, having vastly less in common with us than we think. Much of what makes us what we are presupposes a particular kind of planet, with its own distinctive chemistry, biochemistry, evolutionary history, etc.; the Burgess Shale reminds us that the common phyla we've got now are a small selection out of a much more diverse range of options, and a different planet with different physical conditions, its own unique biochemistry and evolutionary history, and so on, would start from different options in the first place and evolve intelligence in its own wholly alien way.
As for who makes the decision, yes, that's an issue, isn't it? ;-)
Bill, sure, I'd be interested in hearing ite. As for the motive behind the suicides, good. More on this very soon.
Unknown Deborah, yes, but you're not a member of a small group of people who have spent generations on a project whose basic presuppositions have just been catastrophically disconfirmed. Stay tuned.
Thomas, remember that Anna referred to the priestesses as "your priestesses," meaning not hers, and that she retains the scraps of a belief system she got from her parents. The people at Star's Reach weren't worshippers of Mam Gaia, interestingly enough -- remember, they were fairly isolated, and thus not part of the religious evolution of Meriga.
As for the second point, thank you for getting that! It's a core theme of much of my thinking; by no particular coincidence, it's going to be central to the next series of posts on The Archdruid Report.
Octopi occupy :-) a very different environment - sea water instead of air. Yet Physics & the physical environment dictate functioning structures.
One can differ considerably, the other is invariant.
I could well see a majority of intelligent life forms differing dramatically, but Physics will create some parallel evolution in a minority. And out of 39 random selections, having not one close enough to ours for our superb pattern recognition (we are good at this - see the patterns we see in clouds) to not pick up on one seems unlikely to me.
My 2¢
(Feel free to keep this comment off-list if desired) Ah, it's all clear in hindsight now. I should have re-read Chapter 47 before launching into this one. A reader who reads the print edition one chapter after another might not have lost sight of what Anna said last time. Still, as a friendly suggestion, in some future print or audio edition, you might want to play up the idea that Anna has "kooky" beliefs compared to everybody else, even moreso than you did in her backstory during the previous chapters. Anna's "kooky" beliefs are basically 21st-century Earth-normal to many sci-fi readers, so they seemed unemarkable, unmemorable as I read through them the first time. The idea that they'd drive people to suicide simply didn't occur to me... You might want to play up the way that such beliefs would sound like the lunatic fringe to the Merigans listening to her. They don't sound quite so much like lunatic fringe to _us_, the Merigans' culturally immature 21st-century ancestors!
Alan, I think you're greatly underestimating the potential range of variation of habitable environments -- Delta Pavonis IV, for example, is a gas giant -- as well as the degree to which Earth's idiosyncratic physical and chemical conditions, as well as its evolutionary history, constrain its potential for biological variability.
Of course I've used convergent evolution to justify a couple of plagiarisms from Earth biology already -- the Cetans' life cycle, for example, is largely based on that of terrestrial slime molds, while the critters from Delta Pavonis IV are modeled on some of the more complex coelenterates. That's an admission of the limits of my own imagination, though -- if human beings ever contact intelligent life from other worlds, my guess is that they'll be considerably more alien than the examples I've used.
Still, de gustibus non disputandum est, and of course we're talking about a novel.
Thomas, good. Stay tuned -- I've deliberately made Anna's ravings seem plausible to my readers, because I want to make a few hints about the validity of some of the commonplaces of 21st century thought. I'll be expanding on this in the episodes ahead.
Tau Ceti is 12 light years away, Delta Pavonis is 20 (19.92) light years away.
Q & A (assuming a response time of a few days) is twice the light years.
Delta Pavonis IV is the nearest of the 38 active members - but Rau Ceti is closer.
Some surmises.
The farthest members of the "Group" are within 300 light years of each other. Not more than 600 years between Q & A. This is the limiting factor - not intelligence.
Both worlds in the Q & A need to be interested in the exchange - and interest drops off at the low data transmission rate.
The effort to understand alien ideas (consider the failure of humans to understand porpoises (they may understand us)) may also limit the # of worlds in the "Group'. How much effort do intelligent beings want to put into understanding other existences ? 38 alien cultures may be all that they are interested in.
I hypothesize that there are many other "Groups" and some of the 38 in "our Group" are also members of other Groups.
Earth & Tau Ceti are closer in both time and space than the closest member of the Group. This implies that few civilizations are capable of long term membership.
For example, the ability for Earth to simply communicate is fading fast as the last computer chips fail. Perhaps a few millennium later we will recreate this capability - if we remember the earlier contact.
However, with our current vast resources. SETI is a small fraction of the effort (I run SETI on BIONC).
Quite likely, a later Earth technology. with fewer resources, would not even look.
My 2¢
(Deborah Bender)
" if human beings ever contact intelligent life from other worlds, my guess is that they'll be considerably more alien than the examples I've used."
I agree with this absolutely. So different that simple mutual recognition that the other is a) alive and b) sentient will be an enormous barrier at first contact.
And if they are physically very different, their social organization will be different and their thought processes will be different. Naomi Mitchison's novel Memoirs of a Spacewoman deals with how an intelligent species with radial symmetry thinks and takes in data; not like us.
There is no reason IMHO to believe in the likelihood that most intelligent alien races would be interested in communicating with off world species even if they were aware of the others' existence; why should they be, unless they are descended from curious, exploring primates or hail from a planet that has several different intelligent species on it (as we do; though the kinds of intelligence vary).
For those species or multi-species societies who are interested, the barriers of understanding created by such differences in life experience and nervous system organization would make communication very, very difficult. You have described this in earlier chapters.
Not necessarily impossible; a galaxy with as many star systems as ours is the equivalent of all those monkeys randomly pounding typewriters. Very rare, though.
Interesting article, speaking of slime molds, have you read about the studies mentioned here? Fascinating stuff, this!
http://www.nature.com/news/how-brainless-slime-molds-redefine-intelligence-1.11811
Alan, I'd encourage you to consider writing a science fiction novel of your own. The fictional cosmos I've constructed has a noticeably different shape (and flavor) than the one you've proposed here!
Unknown Deborah, my working hypothesis is that any species curious enough about nature to devise advanced technology is probably going to be curious enough to see if there's anybody else out there. Thus, in the cosmos of the story, there are forty species with advanced technology in this end of the galaxy, scattered across some hundreds of thousands of stars. Many of the others have planets with life forms, but not all planets with life forms produce intelligent species that pursue advanced technology, and even those that do -- well, you've got to be around during the lifespan of those species, which is not limitless. So we've got a handful of communicating nodes splashed across space, in a vast and profoundly alien cosmos.
Rylin, no, I hadn't! I was going on what I learned about slime molds back in college classes on biology and ecology. Interesting that the slime mold they used in the experiment is even the same color as the Cetans...
"The population there gradually declined over time..."
My take on the suicides is a bit different:
So, a declining population, increasingly isolated from the rest of a civilization clearly falling apart. Also, in an environment that isn't likely to be sustainable when the technological support system fails. (And given the mission they're on, they probably don't have a good range of mindsets and skills to transition to a viable low-tech existence.)
Even without the alien contact, just the knowledge that there's no future for them there (or anywhere else) could be enough for them to decide to end their existence intentionally and relatively gracefully, rather than living through increasing desparation, dying a bit at a time.
Now add the contact, and the message, and the realization that there's nobody on earth at this point in a position to accept the aliens' invitation. or even give it the deep consideration it deserves. So, you leave enough behind, with a high enough difficulty, so that if anyone comes by in a few centuries, and can "read the message", they might be in a better position to make the decision.
About alienness -- our own body form is of course the result of many peculiar evolutionary stages, the randomness versus inevitability of which cannot be surmised from a sample of 1 biosphere. Our architecture is very peculiar among mammals, and resulted from our history of brachiating (swinging from our forelimbs the way arboreal monkeys and apes still do). This is one of the rarest forms of locomotion on the planet, but it gave us dextrous forelimbs that were then freed up for tools when we became terrestrial bipeds. Does the fact that we are extremely peculiar in both these ways (being technological and having evolved to brachiate) mean that you need some weird thing to happen in your evolution to lead to a technological mind and form? Or is it just a one-off fluke? No way to know. Just an example of a small part of the long strange (and quirky) trip we have taken evolutionarily to make us what we are. But I can say there are lots of highly inquisitive species on the earth with a multiplicity of ways to manipulate the world around them (Magpies make tools, and I believe they are among the birds that show mirror self-recognition and seem to understand death), yet we are the only technological ones. Why? Accident that we came along first?
Physics does dictate form to some extent, and puts hard limits on the extremes. But even here on earth we see enormously varied solutions. Expand the range of physics, and the number of solutions expands even more. On a twin earth, I expect you would superficially see tree-like things, fish-like things, things that crawl, climb, walk, and fly... but when you looked closely the resemblance to anything terrestrial would be less than the resemblance between a dragonfly, a bat, and an eagle. And the vast majority of planets we know about do not resemble the earth very much, other than being oblate spheroids (the only solution physics will allow for bodies that big; all others are gravitationally unstable).
When I was a child (in the 70's) I read in an Astronomy divulgative book that the Sun would engulf Earth in a billion of years; but there was no problem, because human talent had no limits. So, people would travel to another planets in other stars to live new life. There was in other page of the book, a reference of Orion Project, with a beautiful picture (nuclear spaceship flying to Outer space).
Some years later, I thought that in a billion years me, my family and friends would be very very dead. Don't worry...unless you are a very rationalistic scientist.
When I started as a doomer-peaker oiler-man, I was very worried, so I wanted to explain the bad news to everyone I met. I was so naive...
Ha ha ha! I received a lot of prosaic negationist garbage , but I remember specially:
-A very rational person who said me: "you man of the caves, you are wrong. Humanity has a fate collonising stars leaving this boring planet". This argument may be transformed in a messsianic cult, of course.
-An UFO freak wrote me: "No problem, boy. Aliens will contact us in the future and show to humans free and eternal energy".
-No comments-
I suppose Anna was a mix of the two "optimistic" attitudes. She realisez that human beings was going to die (as species) in this "boring" planet without living in another planets.
I have a foreboding that this message was not the cause of the mass suicide (if that's what it was). I'm thinking of the Martians in H. Beam Piper's "Omnilingual" (http://gutenberg.org/ebooks/19445): when their power source failed, they sealed themselves in a room, set some braziers, and essentially had a cocktail party around the table until the oxygen ran out. If it takes 1000ft^3 per person for a spare diet and there were circa fifty people left, that's a lot more floor under those glass blocks than I'm imagining. My guess is they were relying on stored food and it was running out. But I suspect there a still more than a few things left that are not as they seem...
(Deborah Bender)
On first reading, I had taken Anna's speech about the Others in episode 47 as her recollection of a mother's attempt to reassure a child in terms the child can understand, like "Your baby sister's in heaven." Taking the speech as a description of Anna's mother's actual outlook puts a different face on their situation.
Also, it didn't occur to me until now that Star's Reach had continuing government support not as a pure science project but with the hope (or at least the political justification) that an advanced alien civilization might come and rescue us.
That idea has always seemed preposterous to me so I didn't take it seriously. But the reasons that American scientists cook up to get politicians to fund basic research often have little to do with the scientists' actual interests. Once the Star's Reach project had been underway for a couple of generations and a lot of money spent on it, cognitive dissonance alone might result in the U.S. government and the people working on the project hoping that the Space Brothers are coming to save us.
Dwig's explanation of the mass suicide seems reasonable. So is the explanation JMG may be implying, that as the colony of scientists dwindled, lost resources and became more isolated, it gradually changed into a culture of believers passively awaiting rescue from the Sky People.
(Deborah Bender)
I have no idea what these characters will decide to do, especially since according to JMG's schema of catabolic collapse, human society in Trey's time is not on its way to technological recovery but in a temporary period of stability before the next drop. Something they probably don't know.
I know what I would do. Make sure that the aliens are telling the truth when they say they don't have the capability for interstellar travel. First contact of that sort would be 1492 on steroids, not anything I would want to help along.
If they are safely stuck in their own neighborhoods, I would definitely accept the offer to be penpals. No reason to ask anyone's permission, except perhaps the priestesses or that mysterious organization of Rememberers. Or at least send back "Message received; talk to you in a thousand years when we get powered up again."
Captcha pndingsq 1412
I hope the offer to communicate, no matter the time lapse, falls into the right hands - the hands of those that will commit their lives to learning about how it can all be - life, the universe and everything (not 42)... Even though our neighbors exist in vastly different biological realms, do we all exist in the same physical realm? We certainly exist withing the same observable universe. Do we share the same measurements and interpretations of the forces that make up our universe? Is light speed unchanging? Do they also agree that as we approach the speed of light we gain ultimate mass and the time vector is stilled? What perceptions are core and what relative? Could we all be three-dimensional projections from scribblings on the event horizon at the center of our Milky Way? Can we write there? Is there free will or is it destiny? Or are these questions, measurements and suppositions all part of my ancestral tree? A great turn of the story JMG!!!
Re: comparing notes with alien intelligences... In my own mind I imagine that we might find conceptualizations of the universe that are very different than our own, to the point that they will be quite hard for human minds to wrap themselves around and vice versa. But when examined in great depth I imagine they would be found to be describing the same things at their cores. If this synthesis could ever actually be done, I think we would get huge perspective on our own conceptual blockages (and vice versa), and some of the fundamental structures might suddenly be seen by us with profound and radical new insight. Perhaps some of the major blockgaes in our own physics might suddenly evaporate. They don't like to admit it, but our physics is really stuck now, spewing out untestable theories (e.g string theory), accumulating unexpected observations "explained" only by ad hoc theories that yield no understanding of them (e.g. dark energy and the inflationary universe), and bound to arbitrary empirical models of systems that give no "why" answers, just describe "how" (e.g. standard model of elementary particles).
In the real world, I just want to live long enough (and see institutional science survive long enough) to get some measurments of atmospheric chemistry of exoplanets; I am guessing this is a few decades off. I want to see the first real data on how many (if any) of these atmospheres show the thermodynamic inequilibria that would be indicators of biology, and if found, hints as to what sorts of metabolisms this biology might be undertaking. Of course we might not need to go so far; Titan shows some curiosities in its atmospheric chemistry, and we have already landed a probe there. Though it is a wonderful fantasy, I don't actually expect the messages from the Cetans to start coming anytime soon.
Very nice. And completely in accordance with the universe as revealed in the story thus far. Thank you.
Glenn
Marrowstone Island
Thank you for posting early!
I guess you're aware of the demoscene, based on the fact that the program described in this episode seems to be a demo of mythic scope. What a lively culture such a program must have sprung from!
If I'm right, it's a little surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if you knew about mnemonic notae, and each such image seems to have been like a demo (in the demoscene sense), a study in extreme lossless compression of interdisciplinary content. Did that similarity spark your interest? Did you happen to hear about demos by chance? Or did you re-imagine them from scratch? Most people I know who would even be ready to learn what a demo is, love technology for its own sake, and you don't seem to.
I wonder if enough hackers could become interested in intergenerational mnemonics that some of the technical culture of demo-building might be applied to the production of new notae.
The assertions about technology ring very true to me, and to the extent that science is linked to technology, I guess contact with alien civilizations wouldn't advance science much. Based on my experience of the tonic effect of other perspectives on shared work, I'd expect a blossoming of scientific development upon interstellar contact, but I would expect it to be almost completely limited to pure science.
One very short comment: I think discussion with some other technological civilization would advance cognitive science like nothing else.
Just the recognition (by, for example, George Lakoff) that cognition is embodied has sparked a quiet revolution. Access to one additional data point, corresponding to an entirely different embodiment, would presumably teach us a lot.
Now, any advanced technology based on cognitive science would be indistinguishable from...well, from a change in consciousness in accordance with will. But what an opportunity for new understanding that would be!
I just looked back at the previous point to check on something I thought I remembered. And I did remember it correctly:
"This other program was downloaded onto the system four days before that, spent all four of those days doing something I can’t figure out, and then deleted itself."
So why did the original program delete itself, as though covering its tracks? Just so that we could not send it on to someone else, or figure our how it worked? Seems it's really unlikely that either the Earthlings or the Cetans could have comprehended software that is 23 million years more advanced than our own.
Perhaps this point will come up again, perhaps not...
JMG, Thanks for a great story so far. This has some great insight in plain view.
When i was a teenager, my brother's girlfriend (now wife), was telling me me about somebody she knew who was involved in astral travel. Their astral travel "club" had supposedly visited venus and conversed, or at least met, with a life form that was pure heat energy.
Aside from the fact this is thrid hand, and I just don't have any personal proof of astral travel in that sense, the idea of alien life in forms that we just do not have the imagination to conjure intrigued me and stuck.
And thanks for mentioning the Burgess Shale. There is the tendency to see humans as an evolutionary peak, instead of just some random circumstantial blip in eternity's clockface. They don't realise that it could have easily been a seven legged bug with three eyes on stalks and an anus that doubled as a mouth and a reproductive organ (sometimes humans do share those latter qualities somewhat) that took our place. And still could.
Dwig, stay tuned!
Bill, exactly. I suspect, for what it's worth, that there have been other fully sentient species on this planet already, and there may well be several others right now, but the adaptations that make for sentience and those that make for tool use have no necessary connnections to one another, so we're the first on Earth to combine sentience with the physical and mental capacity for fine manipulation of the environment.
Spanish fly, I'm all too familiar with both those fantasies -- and yes, so was Anna.
RPC, I know the story well! In some ways, this story is trying to make a case that Piper was wrong -- that human science isn't universal, that it's much more a projection of human neurology and culture onto the cosmos than it is a discovery of truths that are "out there." As Trey mentioned in an earlier episode, there are some things that are always true, but how those are conceptualized and put to use will, to my mind, vary far more drastically than the science fiction of an earlier era tended to think.
Unknown Deborah, nah, the Third Civil War was the bottom of the curve of catabolic collapse. Now we're in the dark age that follows -- you'll have noticed the indications in previous episodes that things have gotten better over the last couple of generations. If only a fourth civil war can be avoided...
Carlo, exactly. If we ever do make contact with alien intelligent beings, once we get past the huge difficulties to communication, those are among the questions that will be most interesting to ask.
Bill, exactly. You'll remember the discussion in an earlier episode about Cetan radios -- incomprehensible at first glance, but there's an underlying physics that makes sense of theirs and ours alike.
Glenn, you're welcome!
Joel, no, and I'll have to look up the term. I simply started from first principles, trying to come up with a way that a program could be made to operate on unknown hardware working on unknown principles, and systems theory suggested a recursive structure of the kind Tashel Ban very loosely described here.
Bill, actually, it was because the big program very nearly filled the Star's Reach computers to the brim. My assumption is that, in order to do the kind of analysis needed to produce the message our characters saw, it would have to be gargantuan -- and thus would delete itself, out of courtesy, the way a good installation program does once the program itself is installed.
Xhmko, exactly. Exactly! Gould's book on the Burgess shale points out trenchantly that there was nothing inevitable about our particular body plan, or anything else about the way life unfolded on this planet -- thus it's probably a safe bet that living things somewhere else will not be human beings with funny ears, porpoises with hands, etc., but things we can barely imagine.
this is the bit where my mind boggles: “There was a debate,” Eleen said then, “back in the old world, about technology. Almost everyone then thought that technology could just keep on progressing forever, becoming more and more powerful, until it could do anything. There were a few scholars who pointed out that everything else follows what’s called the law of diminishing returns. Trey, if you’re digging for metal in a ruin, the longer you keep digging, the harder it gets to find metal; am I right?”
thinking of technology as a finite resource is a very interesting concept. Perhaps it could be thought of as the top of a resource pyramid. You could stretch the idea a little further with a sort of EROEI - TROTI to consider a collapse point. There is, after all more of most resources, just not with practical access.
Thanks for this story - I've really enjoyed checking back around the end of each month to see if the next exciting chapter is up yet!
(Deborah Bender)
Thanks for clearing that up, JMG. I did notice the indications that conditions have been improving. What confused me was that salvage is still going on.
I had imagined that the Dark Ages would not arrive until salvageable materials were all used up. Now I see that each age is named after its primary economic driver, and "all used up" comes well after the transition to the next period.
You have a gifted ability to encapsulate the most challenging, threatening, subtle and elusive thruths in simple phrases like "many of the things you think are true about the universe are actually reflections of the deep structures of your own organisms." You state the greatest weakness of the scientific method -- that it is dependent upon our limited senses and intellect for its observation and analysis -- without getting trapped in argument, explanation or defense of the idea.
Some ideas are so threatening to society's mythology that arguing them with the faithful is a fool's folly. In such cases, only presenting alternative mythic structures sufficiently compelling to dislodge our thinking out of our cultural biases can encourage us to reassess our assumptions -- alternative mythic structures like your novel, Star's Reach. Without new mythologies with which to make sense out of the world, our expiring myths, unable to provide meaning in times of change, leave us overwhelmed -- like Anna.
It is a joy to read a steadfast proponent of the scientific method as a superior tool in the human toolkit, who is just as steadfast in pointing out its inherent limitations. Would that we could all conduct scientific inquiry as objectively as you, we might all come away as skeptical of the scientific method as a panacea for our times. Paradoxical, that.
Not the plot twist I was expecting, but I like it!
The suicide of Anna's group, and now of Anna herself, is not so hard to fathom. It's tempting to think of Anna and company as UFO/SETI-believers of the kind we have today who were simply disappointed that reality did not match up to their expectations, but they aren't-- not really. It's much worse (for them) than that.
The people at Star's Reach weren't simply credulous folks who read a book about UFO sightings and lacked the critical thinking to spot the obvious problems with it. They had been there at Star's Reach, at this point in the story, for centuries. They'd grown up there and had the importance and specialness of the work they were doing drilled into them by parents and grandparents, and they all had minimal or no contact with people from the outside. The religion of the Space Brothers was central to their identity, to their daily work and lives, (and parents' lives and great-grandparents' lives) in a way that most non-cultic mainstream religions of today are not. The Star's Reach crew likely did not even consider themselves "religious", but instead saw themselves as the last scientifically literate group on earth, set apart from the benighted, superstitious masses, doing work that was humanity's sole hope of salvation: contact with the Almighty Space Brothers who would save humankind from the consequences of their sins.
SR was a cult, a monastery, that received graven tablets of stone straight from Heaven revealing that their beliefs and work were all for nothing. Devastating.
Interestingly (well, interesting to me at least), contact with the Cetans would not have been fatal to their worldview, since one easily could imagine the Space Brothers not deeming the Cetans worthy of First Contact for one reason or another (and as we know, contacting the unworthy violates the "Prime Directive", which we know all Space Brother Federations must have, else we would have heard from them by now). But contact from the Conversation was different. There is no way that the Conversation could be around for 22 million years, yet be unaware of the Space Brothers. How dare they reveal the God prophesied by Carl Sagan et al was a fairy tale.
Their only other option to preserve their religion/identity would have been to double down on Space Brother-ism and declare the Conversation a fraud, or a test of their faith or something (but couched in scientific-sounding terms of course, not "test of our faith"). And I suppose that it's still in the realm of possibility that something like that happened in the hours leading up to the mass suicide, and indeed the suicide itself may have been less an act of outright despair than a last, desperate act of devotion, as the Heaven's Gate suicide was.
"Out of 39 evolutionary choices, not one close ? Octopus eyes are much like ours."
But you wouldn't know that by just looking at a picture of an octopus. Even if there are certain structures that are common across different alien races (e.g. hands), the external appearance of those structures-- especially to the untrained eye-- would still be infinitely variable. What's described in the story is not even the aliens themselves, mostly, but our protagonist's impression of a slideshow of them, and his overall impression is that they are all profoundly inhuman. That's to be expected. At a minimum, one would expect aliens to look very different, even if there are some functional similarities on closer inspection. Certainly one would not expect the aliens of this story to turn out to be the usual Sci-Fi tropes of cat people, Space Elves, Space Romans, etc.
I think I was guilty of vague pronouns in my last comment. I meant that the inhabitants of Star's Reach (not Piper's Martians) could not have survived without stored or imported food. Even 50 people would need a minimum of 100000ft^2 under cultivation - that's a lot of glass roof - and the area around Star's Reach has been a desert for a long, long time.
I also wonder whether Anna's parents were believers in the Space Brothers. They chose to leave rather than die, after all, and make their way in a very different and difficult world. I can imagine a scenario where Anna's mother told her _about_ the Space Brothers creed as an explanation for why the family had to leave, and it wasn't until Anna got to Star's Reach and read the alien-books that she "got religion."
All
I held off and only got here today. But that is nice as I could read all the comments and answers. Thank you.
The big issue seems to be that even with 22M years and coming from a multiplicity of angles, there is a hard limit to 'knowledge', at least of the kind that is available to the kind of intelligence that accumulates large stores and can test it and communicate it mentally. (I only hazard a shot at the definition!)
Actually I think (?) I have a different perception of 'knowledge'; at least of knowledge constructed in and by scientific communication. For a while I had a job going round labs / institutions overseeing risk assessments of genetic manipulation. Usually not such a big deal as it sounds, though occasionally it got hot, but it meant that I needed to be interested in and converse on a lot of different cutting-edge stuff. The researchers were always most interested in and happy to explain ‘what they did not know', which usually was most of what they were struggling with. Eventually this situation popped up as a 'visual' explanation in my head. I saw it as a growing set of bubbles each with its own frontier with the unknown. The surface area with the unknown was growing exponentially. Occasionally some kind of unification seems to have happened (unified theory?) and some kind of 'whole' knowledge appeared. (Think perhaps at the broad scale of thermodynamics and the relationship between probability and entropy, or in microscopic self-organisation what we know about DNA code and simple instructional sets, energy cascades and homeostasis?)
Anyway, my hobby version these days is to scan the pages of Science each week.
What is left in a hundred years or so is a valid important question for JMG to ask, in my view.
I am still curious about Star's Reach and the relationship between mental knowledge and real world(s). I am as interested in imputing stuff as much as in computing it. 'Imputing presence' as in non-human forms, and even in abstract structures or landscape, as in religious perception, still intrigues me.
PS I can imagine that if all those 38 species (now isn’t species a singular concept!) went through an energy pinch, what they reconstructed could be of common interest. PPS I could imagine that ‘unimaginable’ versions of 3D printing combined with, say quantum computing, could have got into very sophisticated energy-parsimonious areas of long distance mental contact by now.
I don't have so long to wait for the next instalment!
best
Phil H
I has been 4 decades since I could calculate what stars would be observable from what points on the opposite hemisphere.
Delta Parvonis is at -66 S declination, which makes it difficult to see from the Kansas City area. Also the radio receivers are likely focused towards Tau Ceti.
So some omni-directional radio beam was used.
I am thinking about a parallel story line (like some Star Trek novels) where the Union of Scandinavia, the most technologically advanced area left on Earth (but still much degraded) has also received the "Table of Stars" message and had operating computers that could process the message - some 60 years ago.
And since Delta P, is 20 light years away, that is time enough for an exchange.
On a more practical (and ghoulish) note: I hope Trey has the presence of mind to put Anna's corpse in a freezer (if he's found any). He may yet have need for her fingerprints...
The Drake Equation goes some way to quantifying out ignorance about these matters.
It is N = R_star * f_p * n_e * f_l * f_i * f_c * L
R_star is the star formation rate per year in our galaxy.
f_p is the fraction of stars with planets
n_e is the number of planets per star suitable for life
f_l is the fraction of these where life actually emerges
f_i is the fraction of these that give rise to "intelligent" life
f_c is the fraction that develop into a technological civilisation
L is the average lifetime of such a civilisation
It is thought that R_star is about 7.
f_p has some data now, given that extrasolar planets have been detected. The exact number is uncertain since only large planets can be detected with current instruments, but this number may be in the range 0.5-1, i.e. the majority of stars have some form of planetary system.
n_e much more uncertain since Earth sized planets can only be detected in special situations when they transit their star. There are many star systems with planetary systems with a very different layout, with close-in giant planets (known as hot-Jupiters) some on eccentric orbits, which may not be conducive to Earth-like terrestrial planets in the habitable zone. It must be said that a planet need not be a carbon copy of Earth to host life, perhaps Venus hosted life prior to a greenhouse runaway, or Mars prior to the escape of most of its atmosphere. Moons of gas giants may host life. For an initial estimate lets say 0.2
f_l - is quite uncertain since we only have one example of an origin of life. Certainly the chemical building blocks of life are fairly common, but we can't be certain about all the steps of how we got from the building blocks to a living cell. The only thing we can say, is that life emerged relatively quickly after the Earth cooled, in geological terms. Assuming the "optimistic" case, where the origin of life doesn't require special circumstances so rare as to be unrepeatable, we could assume f_l = 1.
f_i again, very uncertain, but in this case it took 4 billion years after the origin of life, and 600 million after the dawn of multicellular life, for humanity to appear. Evolution is not a matter of progress towards intelligence as a goal, but of survival and spreading genes, and intelligence enough to build a civilisation may not be inevitable or common. Also, there may be many planets habitable only for microbial life. I will assume f_i = 0.1
f_c the fraction of the intelligent life that release detectable signals of their activities able to be picked up at interstellar distances. It may be that some intelligent species never reach the industrial stage, using fossil fuel energy, perhaps their planet has little if any concentrated fossil fuels. Many especially larger terrestrial planets may be complete waterworlds, since a larger mass means flatter topography due to gravity, and likely a larger quantity of water, which would seem to present problems to the development of metalworking and fossil fuel burning. I will assume f_c = 0.5
L is the lifetime of the communicating civilisation.
The numbers I have used give:
7*0.5*0.2*1*0.1*0.5*L = 0.035*L
So a lifetime of 1,000 years would give us 35 civilisations in the Galaxy at any one time.
A crude way of picturing the galaxy is a disk 100,000 light years wide and 1,000 light years thick. At this density the civilisations would be an average of 5,000 light years apart.
Now if we take what the Star's Reach story says, based on the length of time civilisations have been involved in the "Conversation", we could instead assume L = 10 million years, giving 350,000 civilisations in the Galaxy. This would mean an average distance of just under 300 light years.
At the most, uprating the terms within the Drake equation could increase by about a factor of 100 without increasing L, this still doesn't bring the likely nearest civilisation closer than about 64 light years.
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